Temple & Webster Group "FY26 Trading update" (Neutral) Karatzas

Research evidence excerpt

Temple & Webster Group "FY26 Trading update" (Neutral) Karatzas

changes). We would highlight in April-26, our analysis has found TPW 06/26E 0.08 0.06 -31 0.10

delivered an EBITDA margin of c.5.5% which if sustained would drive EBITDA to targets 06/27E 0.14 0.12 -15 0.16

of c.A$40mn. Our FY27 margin target of 4.6% sits below this given our view of the 06/28E 0.21 0.17 -22 0.24

macro environment continuing to be challenging. This would see further industry

promotional activity and thus downward pressure from April-26 margin levels. Evan Karatzas

Analyst

evan.karatzas@ubs.com

Neutral rated. Despite sell-off, stock yet to present enough value

+61-2-9324 2852

We have a Neutral rating on TPW. We continue to like the long-term growth potential of

Tim Plumbethe stock with TPW's consumer value prop, supply chain structure, strong unit

economics, healthy net cash balance sheet, and strong management team all pointing tim.plumbe@ubs.com

to a sustained period of market share gains ahead. However, despite the material de- +61-2-9324 3726

rate, we think the stock still does not present adequate value with its FY28e EV/EBIT

Gaya Chandrasekaran

multiple of 19x, representing a 20% premium to the ASX Industrials index. As

Associate Analyst

mentioned, we would also highlight further downside revenue risks from the UBS gaya.chandrasekaran@ubs.com

Economics team view of an additional rate rise for CY26 (totalling 4). +61-2-9324 2498

Valuation: 12m price target A$6.10p/sh

Our price target remains based on a relative valuation (EV/EBIT) and DCF and reduces

35% to A$6.10 off the back of 31% / 15% / 22% FY26-28e EPS downgrades to reflect

the more subdued Australian macro environment which will likely weigh on revenue

growth.

Highlights (A$m) 06/23 06/24 06/25 06/26E 06/27E 06/28E 06/29E 06/30E