Morning Expresso – Australasia "Thursday 14 May 2026"

Research evidence excerpt

Morning Expresso – Australasia "Thursday 14 May 2026"

Xero - Capturing missed opportunity

Mid-market opportunity with app partners could drive ARPU upside in ANZ Software

We attended the CFO Techstack Showcase event today, which was organised by Mayday (one of XRO's

SaaS app partners focused on month-end automation for finance teams for mid-sized customers) and

where XRO was main sponsor. We walked away from the event constructive on the mid-market RATING: Buy

opportunity for XRO, with potential upside to our current forecast for 6% ARPU growth in ANZ over TARGET: A$127.00

the medium term. Key takeaways:

Significant TAM opportunity in mid-market available for XRO and app partners, particularly

given ERP upgrades for mid sized businesses can cost tens of thousands of dollars/mth in annual PRICE: A$80.13

subscription fees + expensive upfront implementation fee. For small businesses scaling into mid, XRO MCAP: A$12.5b/US$9.03b

+app stack could cost $4.4k/mth, significantly cheaper vs traditional ERP providers (e.g. Netsuite,

Oracle), plus benefits from using best of breed apps that are tailored to the business' specific needs.

Mayday currently supports 46 customers with >$100m turnover and 62 with $150m+ turnover.

Ability to scale XRO into mid-market with app partners can reduce potential churn. Industry EPS ESTIMATES:

and panel feedback suggests customers who have grown with XRO tend to prefer to stay given 03/26E: 1.41

familiarity of the system (less organisational change management required), cheap relative to 03/27E: 1.48

incumbent ERP products, and XRO offers strong capability. But, they typically get pressured to move to 03/28E: 2.38

incumbent ERP because of lack of awareness on how to build a strong app ecosystem around XRO to RIC: XRO.AX