Aristocrat Leisure "1H26 result: Pass Go" (Buy) Fromyhr

Research evidence excerpt

Aristocrat Leisure "1H26 result: Pass Go" (Buy) Fromyhr

ale, we think investors will appreciate the directional signal to support margin 09/26E 2.62 2.59 -1 2.57

expansion while still growing top line. We think this target may prove as a swing factor 09/27E 2.91 2.83 -3 2.86

to consensus forecasts. We forecast ~A$350m of EBITA growth from FY26E to FY28E 09/28E 3.32 3.26 -2 3.23

(excl FY26E litigation benefits), with ~A$200m from growth and ~A$150m from margin

expansion. However we believe our A$150m is still below target since it includes DTC Andre Fromyhr

benefits (~A$30m) and ordinary fixed cost margin expansion. Analyst

andre.fromyhr@ubs.com

+61-3-9242-6470

Market finding confidence again: maintain Buy

Bradley BeckettThe 1H26 result has not materially changed our view on ALL. Our earnings have hardly

Analyst

moved (EPSA -0.8% to +0.5% over FY26E-FY28E in constant FX) and our price target is bradley.beckett@ubs.com

up by <1%. However ALL re-rated strongly (stock +13%), in our view reflecting the end +61-3-9242 6008

of a year-long earnings downgrade cycle (since AGM 2025) with some positive

Rae El Adam

sentiment around higher ops installs, reiteration of the Interactive FY29 US$1b revenue

Associate Analyst

target, cost out, and AI opportunities. Even after the strong reaction with minimal rae.el-adam@ubs.com

changes in our forecasts, we continue to see compelling upside to our price target and +61-3-9242 6180

expect the next earnings events to be further positive catalysts (e.g. July strategy day,

FY26 results).

Valuation: 12m price target A$69.40 per share (previously A$68.90)

Our 12m price target of A$69.40 per share is based on our DCF sum-of-parts of $65.70

at FY26 y/e rolled forward at the cost of equity less dividends paid. Our valuation change