BPER "Lack of catalysts and limited potential upside; downgrade to Neutral"

Research evidence excerpt

BPER "Lack of catalysts and limited potential upside; downgrade to Neutral"

Global Research

14 May 2026ab

BPER Equities

ItalyLack of catalysts and limited potential upside;

downgrade to Neutral Banks, Ex-S&L

12-month rating Neutral

Prior : Buy

12m price target €12.50Limited valuation upside potential. Downgrade to Neutral

Prior : €13.50

We downgrade BPER to Neutral from Buy, with our reduced €12.5/share PT (previous

€13.5) implying limited valuation upside potential with the stock trading on a <20% Price (13 May 2026) €12.49

premium to European peers following a >30% outperformance (c60% in absolute RIC: EMII.MI BBG: BPE IM

terms) over the last 12 months. Post 1Q26 results, we cut our YE26-30 EPS estimates by

4-6% mainly due to modestly lower revenue progression (1% vs old) and higher tax rate Trading data and key metrics

(at 35%, in line with guidance), resulting in our 26-27 forecasts standing now 3-4% 52-wk range €13.14-7.41

below VA csus. After the execution of the 3% SBB announced in March the bank still has Market cap. €26.1b/US$30.6b

available excess capital amounting to 5% of the market cap, though no longer above for Shares o/s 2,091m (ORD)

instance BAMI and with BPER's share price already reflecting, in our view, expectations Free float 98%

of a potential enhancement in capital distribution. Our preference in Italy is now for ISP Avg. daily volume ('000) 8,779

within the banks and FBK/BGN within the asset gatherers. Avg. daily value (m) €103.3

Common s/h equity (12/26E) €17.1b

Potential 9.9% SBB with share cancellation provides limited additional upside P/BV (12/26E) 1.5x

In March-26 BPER announced a buyback amounting to 3% of the capital, equivalent to Tier 1 ratio 17%

€750mn, without the cancellation of the shares, with management keeping the treasury