First Read: Almarai Company "Margins sensitivity to potential dairy price..."

Research evidence excerpt

First Read: Almarai Company "Margins sensitivity to potential dairy price..."

Global Research

14 May 2026ab

First Read

EquitiesAlmarai Company

Margins sensitivity to potential dairy price Saudi Arabia

increase Food Products

12-month rating Neutral

12m price target SR45.50

What happened?

Given a significant increase in transportation costs as well as some raw materials

inflation across MENA consumer markets driven by the Middle East geopolitical volatility, Price (13 May 2026) SR43.68

the debate around a potential dairy price hike has intensified. This week, we have RIC: 2280.SE BBG: ALMARAI AB

noticed an increase in a number of investor conversations and questions around

Trading data and key metrics

potential dairy price increases in Saudi Arabia following the strong performance of

Almarai shares earlier this week (shares of Almarai and its local peers including NADEC 52-wk range SR52.80-39.86

and SADAFCO were up c10% on Tuesday, 12 May) as well as questions around Almarai Market cap. SR43.7b/US$11.6b

margins/EPS sensitivity to the potential price hike. That said, as of today, we have not Shares o/s 1,000m (ORD)

found any official confirmation of a price increase reported by the companies or press. Free float 59%

Avg. daily volume ('000) 1,088

Investment implications Avg. daily value (m) SR46.4

A price hike would be supportive, if confirmed, and we would note Almarai dairy prices Common s/h equity (12/26E) SR21.6b

have been broadly stable over the past four years. We would draw investors’ attention to P/BV (12/26E) 2.0x

the historical sensitivity of Almarai’s margins to dairy price hikes (Fig 2). There has never Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 2.6x

been a period historically when margins were up in the same quarter as the price hike.

EPS (UBS, diluted) (SAR)