Global Strategy "Client views - Oil vs Fed vs ECB vs Carry vs Political ..."

Research evidence excerpt

Global Strategy "Client views - Oil vs Fed vs ECB vs Carry vs Political ..."

Global Research

14 May 2026ab

Global Strategy Global Strategy

GlobalClient views - Oil vs Fed vs ECB vs Carry vs

Political risk Reinout De Bock

Strategist

reinout.de-bock@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 0152

Client views after meetings with hedge funds, real money and bank treasury clients in Mustafa Oguz Caylan

the first half of May. Slides are here: "Iran conflict meets hawkish US." Strategist

mustafa.caylan@ubs.com

Appetite for large, directional positions remains limited, though risk-taking has +44-20-7901 5203

improved since April. Several clients believed that geopolitical risks remain unresolved Bhanu Baweja

with energy price tensions unlikely to ease soon. Many pointed to the drop in global oil Strategist

inventory, and some also thought that upcoming disruptions in supply chains are bhanu.baweja@ubs.com

underestimated. Nevertheless, the realized range on oil prices is less elevated than +44-20-7568 6833

feared and allows for some risk-taking. Some investors are expecting higher US rates

and oil prices to weigh on Q2 risk sentiment so are looking to cut EM/equity exposure

after the US tech rally and strong performance in some EM. H2 expected to be a good

window to trade central bank pricing as there will be more clarity on how central

bankers think on the nature of the ongoing supply shock.

US – Short front-end and duration have worked, with recent US CPI data

validating hawkish positioning. A group of clients think that US rates will go higher

from here, but there was less conviction on the shape of the curve. Several clients are

waiting to see how Chair Warsh will navigate the FOMC and likely higher inflation

prints. The concerns are not universal and several real money and treasury clients see