First Read: Sony Financial Group "Slightly negative: Re-evaluation requires..."

Research evidence excerpt

First Read: Sony Financial Group "Slightly negative: Re-evaluation requires..."

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation 6.2%

Forecast dividend yield 4.8%

Forecast stock return 11.0%

Market return assumption 7.6%

Forecast excess return 3.4%

Company Description

The company is the Sony Group financial division. It offers a diverse range of services,

including life insurance, non-life insurance, banking, and financial management. It has

strengths in online banking and insurance products and focuses on enhancing convenience

for consumer services. It is characterized by its product development capabilities, leveraging

group synergies, and holds a high market share in the domestic market.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

Our price target is based on a residual income model (RIM). Risks to our view are as follows.

Upside risks: (1) FY26 guidance (EPS/DPS) significantly exceeding our forecast, driven

primarily by core business rather than temporary factors; (2) Attractive M&A&D opportunities

that we have not anticipated. Downside risks: (1) The pace of increase in Japan's policy

interest rate falling below our assumption (a total of 50bps by 2026), and (2) company

guidance for FY2026 (EPS/DPS) coming in significantly below our forecast, driven primarily by

core business rather than temporary factors. Other fundamental risk factors are as follows.

Market: (1) Rapid fluctuations in ultra-long-term interest rates both domestically and overseas

(particularly increases) and (2) sharp fluctuations in domestic and overseas share prices could

lead to share price declines, bond valuation losses, and increased foreign currency hedging

costs, resulting in a decrease in the economic value-based solvency ratio (ESR), negatively

impacting capital policies and growth strategies.