Sanbio "Akuugo priced at ¥72.7mn despite low peak volume of patients" (Neutral)

Research evidence excerpt

Sanbio "Akuugo priced at ¥72.7mn despite low peak volume of patients" (Neutral)

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation -1.3%

Forecast dividend yield 0.0%

Forecast stock return -1.3%

Market return assumption 7.6%

Forecast excess return -8.9%

Company Description

SanBio Co., Ltd. develops, produces, and sells regenerative cell medicines for neurology.

AKUUGO (SB623) is approved in Japan for chronic traumatic brain injury and is delivered by

neurosurgical implantation. Revenue remains early-stage; operations are Japan-centric with

U.S. Phase-3 planning underway. Recent activity includes scaling manufacturing, logistics,

and surgical-training networks to support adoption.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

We value SanBio using a SOTP. It is the sum of the DCF derived NPVs of all assets.

Key downside risks include: (1) development risk, as AKUUGO, also known as SB623, may not

meet endpoints in confirmatory trials; (2) commercial risk, as competition in TBI, stroke, and

related CNS indications may intensify; (3) pricing and reimbursement pressure; (4) regulatory

and manufacturing oversight; (5) intellectual property and patent risk. Upside risks include:

(1) Sanbio could outperform expectations if its pipeline delivers ahead of schedule. (2)

Successful commercialization of Akuugo would materially enhance valuation and investor

confidence. (3) Accelerated regulatory approvals for severe indications treatments could

further shorten time-to-market, creating near-term revenue upside. (4) In addition, a

favorable pricing environment such as delays or cancellation of government-mandated price

cuts would support margins. (5) Strategic partnerships or licensing agreements with global

pharmaceutical players could strengthen the pipeline and diversify risk. (6) The yen’s