Mohawk Industries Inc "MHK 1Q26 earnings debrief takeaways" (Neutral) Lovallo

Research evidence excerpt

Mohawk Industries Inc "MHK 1Q26 earnings debrief takeaways" (Neutral) Lovallo

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation 26.6%

Forecast dividend yield 0.0%

Forecast stock return 26.6%

Market return assumption 9.0%

Forecast excess return 17.7%

Company Description

Mohawk industries, Inc (MHK), headquartered in Calhoun, GA, is a leading global

manufacturer of flooring products for the residential and commercial markets. Key Brands

include Daltile, Marazzi, American Olean, and Pergo.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

Price Target Methodology: Our $124 PT on MHK shares is based on a 2026e EV/2027e

EBITDA multiple of roughly 6.5x. Our $124/sh PT implies a 2027e P/E multiple of roughly 12x.

Risks: 1) slowing economic activity could lower consumer confidence and cause delays in big-

ticket purchases such as remodeling, 2) US relations with China could negatively impact

MHK’s import ability, 3) industry mix shift towards LVT, where MHK has less share, could

continue longer and be more pronounced than expected, 4) a slowing economy could

negatively impact discretionary purchases such as flooring, 5) new COVID variants may delay

consumer willingness to allow professional contractors into their homes, 6) pricing power

may be insufficient to offset rising raw materials costs, 7) higher diesel costs could impact

logistic operations, 8) labor shortages could delay production and delivery schedules, 9) rising

interest rates could negatively impact new construction activity, 10) home values could

decline, negatively impacting home equity loan availability and confidence in reinvesting in

the home, 11) surge in COVID related home improvement activity may have pulled forward

demand, 12) existing home inventory could remain tight, negatively impacting existing home