Planet Fitness Inc "The Sensitivity of Model to SSS; Where Does Growth..."

Research evidence excerpt

Planet Fitness Inc "The Sensitivity of Model to SSS; Where Does Growth..."

store growth benefitting Q1 0.64 0.75 17 0.74

next year from accelerated unit openings that started in '25A and into '26E. We Q2E 0.90 0.87 -4 0.84

estimate ramping clubs drive as much as 2-3ppts of same store growth. Q3E 0.84 0.79 -5 0.80

Q4E 0.90 0.86 -5 0.83

12/26E 3.28 3.26 -0 3.20

Pricing for BC still an opportunity down the road: Black Card pricing is 12/27E 3.87 3.80 -2 3.63

paused, representing roughly 1.5ppts of the +4-5% same store comp, implying 12/28E 4.30 4.19 -3 4.16

mature club same store decline is more than offsetting around +2ppts of same

Arpine Kocharyan store growth from clubs that are ramping for this year. With a critical window for

Analyst

customer acquisition missed for this year, still stabilizing churn and murkier macro arpine.kocharyan@ubs.com

backdrop, especially for the lower end and middle-income consumer, the decision +1-212-713 2086

to pause pricing was, based on our checks, broadly supported by PLNT's franchisee

Robin M. Farley base. This doesn’t mean PLNT cannot take pricing for the Black Card down the

road. robin.farley@ubs.com

+1-212-713 2060

Competitive pressure dynamics: We don’t believe competitive pressures Alex Kivali

materialize that dramatically over a 90-120 day period, with PLNT seeing same Analyst

store growth of +5.6% in Q4. Q1 saw fading Classic Card pricing, but also click-to- alex.kivali@ubs.com

cancel tougher comps, while same store contribution from clubs that are ramping +1-212-713 3945

was at the lower end of the more typical 2-3ppts range. So what drove the

shortfall was primarily volume disruption from mature clubs. We also note that

Highlights (US$m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E