First Read: Banrisul "1Q26: Weak as expected; Worrisome backdrop reinforces..."

Research evidence excerpt

First Read: Banrisul "1Q26: Weak as expected; Worrisome backdrop reinforces..."

Global Research

14 May 2026ab

First Read

Banrisul Equities

1Q26: Weak as expected; Worrisome backdrop Americas

reinforces cautious stance on upcoming ROAE Banks, Ex-S&L

12-month rating Sell *

12m price target R$15.50

How did the results compare vs expectations?

Net income came in broadly in line with our estimates, recording a notable

sequential drop of 66% to R$222mn – but note this figure came in ~10% below market Price (13 May 2026) R$14.54

consensus. ROAE normalized to 7.9%, compared to the unusually elevated level of RIC: BRSR6.SA BBG: BRSR6 BZ

23.8% in 4Q25 (which had benefited from several positive one-off items). Although

Trading data and key metrics

the bank incurred higher loan loss provisions than expected, the key aspect that

drew our attention was the substantial reduction in operating provisions, which 52-wk range R$19.15-10.53

accounted for 2.1% of payroll loans (vs. 3.6% in 4Q25 and 3.0% for the full year Market cap. R$5.95b/US$1.19b

2025). This decline may have been influenced by subdued payroll loan origination Shares o/s 409m (PREF)

during the quarter, as payroll loans contracted sequentially (and also a double-digit Free float 51%

YoY decrease). Moreover, Stage 3 loans rose sharply on a sequential basis, keeping Avg. daily volume ('000) 1,962

loan loss provisions at high levels; however, the provisioning policy covered ~80% of Avg. daily value (m) R$33.7

the Stage 3 loan formation, which possibly explains the reduction in the coverage Common s/h equity (12/26E) R$11.9b

ratio. Overall, these results, coupled with the concerning outlook for household P/BV (12/26E) 0.5x

delinquency in Brazil and the recent regulatory changes in the payroll loan market, Tier 1 ratio 14%