China Watch: Another soft print underscores fragile credit demand

Research evidence excerpt

China Watch: Another soft print underscores fragile credit demand

Exhibit 2: Estimated Financial Condition Indicator tightened to 97.9 in Mar (vs. revised 97.2

previously)

BofA China Financial Condition Indicator (FCI) and Activity Coincident Indicator (ACT) (2010-26)

% yoy index

BofA China ACT BofA China FCI (RHS, inverted)

50 88

40 looser financial 90

conditions 92

30 94

20 98

100 10

0 104

106 -10

-20 110

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Disclaimer: The indicators identified as BofA China Activity Coincident Indicator and BofA China Financial Condition Indicator above are

intended to be indicative metrics only and may not be used for reference purposes or as a measure of performance for any financial

instrument or contract, or otherwise relied upon by third parties for any other purpose, without the prior written consent of BofA Global

Research. These indicators were not created to act as benchmarks. Please see these reports for methodology and more information

about the indicators: China Viewpoint and BofA China Activity Coincident Tracker. Source: BofA Global Research, CEIC, Wind

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Exhibit 3: RMB loan growth and TSF growth slowed to 5.6% yoy and Exhibit 4: Non-discounted banker’s acceptance (BA) growth dipped into

7.8% yoy, respectively contraction (+2.3% yoy), while growth of entrusted loan muted

Growth of M2, TSF and RMB loans (2014-26) Growth of bonds and off-balance sheet credit (2014-26)

% yoy M2 growth TSF growth % yoy Entrusted loan

18 RMB loan growth 60 Trust loan

Non-discounted BA

16 40 Non-financial corp bond

20 12

10 0

-20 6

4 -40

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026