Weekly Relative Value Update: Food and Beverage – 5/14/26

Research evidence excerpt

Weekly Relative Value Update: Food and Beverage – 5/14/26

increases. Based upon debt of

$1.3 billion and cash of $65 million, net leverage was 5.2x at quarter end.

Other potential risks

In addition, we hear several potential risks that we believe are manageable, including (1)

reduced consumption of sugary products due to GLP-1s and Supplemental Nutrition

Assistance Program (SNAP) restrictions; and (2) additional costs/challenges of

eliminating synthetic colors. Firstly, while there are efforts to ban the use of SNAP for

sugary sodas, implementing this ban on fresh baked goods would be much more

challenging due to labeling and coding issues. Secondly, Rise Baking will have eliminated

Red dye by the end of 2Q26 and is working to eliminate other synthetic colors soon.

Reducing FY26 estimates on higher costs

We have reduced our FY26 Adj EBITDA estimate to $237 million from $260 million due

to (1) weaker-than-expected 1Q results and (2) transportation cost inflation. We

estimate net leverage declines to 5.0x at the end of the year due to solid free cash flow.

For further details, please see the following report: RISBAK 1Q26 Update.

B&G Foods (BGS) 1Q26 EBITDA in-line with our estimate; lowers dividend

Tuesday May 12, 2026

Revenue decreased 4% to $409 million. Organic sales (base business) increased 3% due

to: (1) pricing/mix +1% and (2) volumes +2%. Sales by segment: (1) Specialty -3%; (2)

Meals +1%; (3) Frozen & Vegetable -24%; and (4) Spices & Flavor Solutions +9%. Adj

gross margins decreased 60 bps to 20.7%. Adj EBITDA for the quarter totaled $60

million, relatively in-line with our estimate of $61 million and the comparable period of

$62 million. The company ended the quarter with debt of $2.01 billion and cash of $65

Weekly Relative Value Update | 14 May 2026 3

CR