Morning Market Tidbits: Solid enough to stay put, not hot enough to hike

Research evidence excerpt

Morning Market Tidbits: Solid enough to stay put, not hot enough to hike

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Morning Market Tidbits

Solid enough to stay put, not hot enough

to hike

Key takeaways 14 May 2026

Economics• Apr jobs report was solid but with some weakness in the HH survey. HH employment

United States

fell for the 4th straight month vs firm NFP.

• The divergence isn't unusual. We prefer the NFP signal. But this is worth monitoring Stephen Juneau

US Economist

given risk of downward revisions to NFP. BofAS

+1 202 442 7429

• Today's events: April retail sales, import prices, claims and comments from Miran, stephen.juneau@bofa.com

Schmid, Hammack, Williams & Barr. US Economics

BofAS

Exhibit 1: HH employment fell for the 4th straight month vs firm NFP. The divergence isn't NFP: Nonfarm Payrolls

unusual. We prefer the NFP signal but this is still worth monitoring.

HH: Household Employment levels (indexed to Average 2022 monthly employment level, SA)

105 U-rate: Unemployment Rate

NFP employment HH employment

104 LFPR: Labor Force Participation Rate

103 QCEW: Quarterly Census of

Employment and Wages

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Source: BLS, Haver Analytics

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Solid jobs report but with some Household weakness

Overall, April was a solid jobs report: NFP beat expectations with minimal downward

revisions, and hiring broadened. However, the Household survey was soft. Household

employment declined again and unemployment rose, pushing up the unrounded u-rate.

Labor force participation rate and U6 declined, and unemployment duration increased.

Two surveys, different stories

For context, the jobs report draws on two surveys: the establishment survey (which

produces NFP) and the HH survey (which informs the u-rate and HH employment). HH