EEMEA FI & FX Strategy Watch: We remain structurally bullish Hungarian local bonds & swaps

Research evidence excerpt

EEMEA FI & FX Strategy Watch: We remain structurally bullish Hungarian local bonds & swaps

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EEMEA FI & FX Strategy Watch

We remain structurally bullish Hungarian

local bonds & swaps

Bond and swap structure has room to change even more 14 May 2026

If the government comes up with a credible plan to reduce the budget deficit and the GEM FI & FX Strategy

NBH commits to lower the inflation target, we believe the structure of the bond and EEMEA

swap curves will continue to change, especially if global is supportive. The curves should Mikhail Liluashvili

become more sensitive to monetary policy, less sensitive to core rates and flatter. EEMEA Local Markets Strategist

Ultimately, the curve structure should settle somewhere between Czechia and Poland MLI+44 (UK)20 7996 1142

(Emerging Insight: Hungary – euro adoption is not yet fully in the price 29 April 2026). mikhail.liluashvili@bofa.com

EEMEA FI Strategy & Economics

Curve shape has been changing in the past two weeks too MLI (UK)

Since we published our last big report on Hungary (Emerging Insight: Hungary – euro GEMs FI Strategy & Economics BofAS

adoption is not yet fully in the price 29 April 2026), the curve has continued to

structurally change shape. If we were 50 bps away from our target for 5y and 40 bps

away for 10y on 29 April, we are now only 33 bps and 22 bps (for 5y and 10y For a list of open trade

respectively) away, which is the structure of the curve between Poland and Czechia. For recommendations and trade

a technical discussion on the structure of CE3 curves, see the next page. recommendations closed in the last

12 months, see Global Emerging

POLGB/HGB spreads are misleading Markets Weekly: Decoupling never