Euro Area Viewpoint: China-EU trade: the story is macro imbalance, not tariff diversion

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Euro Area Viewpoint: China-EU trade: the story is macro imbalance, not tariff diversion

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Euro Area Viewpoint

China-EU trade: the story is macro

imbalance, not tariff diversion

Europe’s mopping up of China exports precedes US tariffs 14 May 2026

China’s trade surplus with the EU overtook that with the US in 1Q26, exceeding Economics

USD300bn for the first time. While the 2025 US tariff wave triggered a sharp and Euro Area

broad-based slowdown in Chinese exports to the US, EU imports from China rose 11.6% BofA Euro Economics

yoy last year. But this trend did not start in April 2025 – EU imports from China were BofA Europe (Madrid)

well above pre-pandemic levels even before last year’s tariffs hit. +44europeaneconomics@bofa.com20 7995 1476

Tariff-induced rerouting: a second-order story ChiaraEurope EconomistAngeloni

US tariffs worked as intended against Chinese exports: we estimate that post April BofA+39 02Europe6553 (Milan)0365

2025, it slowed by ca20-26% across HS2 manufacturing sectors. Yet there has been no chiara.angeloni@bofa.com

statistically robust increase in China’s export growth to the EU due to 2025 US tariff- Ruben Segura-Cayuela

induced trade rerouting. When controlling for tariff type, we find that reciprocal tariffs EuropeBofA EuropeEconomist(Madrid)

did have a major impact on diverting Chinese exports away from the US. But tariff +34 91 514 3053

ruben.segura-cayuela@bofa.com

specificities again fail to explain the aggregate surge in EU imports from China. In sum,

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tariffs reduced US imports but fail to explain any meaningful rerouting toward Europe.

‘Vent-for-surplus’ theory explains rising EU exposure

EU imports from China being well above pre-pandemic trends even before 2025