Off-Price Retail: Forest for the Trees: 1Q26 Preview

Research evidence excerpt

Off-Price Retail: Forest for the Trees: 1Q26 Preview

Deutsche Bank

Research

North America Industry Date

Retailing / Specialty Off-Price Retail 15 May 2026

Forest for the Trees: 1Q26 Preview

Krisztina Katai

Sentiment towards off-price retail remains positive with elevated 1Q26 SSS Research Analyst

expectations (low-teens for ROST, 5-6% for Marmaxx, and 7%-8% for BURL). +1-212-250-0590

This reflects tailwinds from stimulus in the US and increased value-seeking

behavior, which combine with company-specific SSS initiatives and easier Nick Breckenridge

Research Associate compares. We also believe off-pricers are in a good position to handle incremental +1-212-250-9179

freight pressure due to top-line strength and recent AUR increases. The question

now becomes how much of recent momentum is one-time (e.g., stimulus-driven) Jessica Taylor

vs. what can be considered sustainable SSS. That said, fears of a consumer Research Associate

+1-212-250-3165 slowdown in recent weeks have led to the group de-rating materially to start fiscal

Q2 – which we believe creates a buying opportunity.

We remain broadly constructive on the off-price group and believe that any

weakening in the macro backdrop should further boost off-price’s appeal vs. Key changes

broader retail. Furthermore, we see potential for sustained SSS momentum as Ross Stores Inc

company-specific merchandising initiatives and new store openings help fill in the Price target (USD) 234 253 8%

white space. All in, we remain constructive on ROST and TJX, which we believe Source: Deutsche Bank

are best positioned for estimate upside from the incremental consumer

transaction, while we remain sidelined on BURL as we wait for more consistent

execution.

• ROST (Buy; $253 PT): ROST’s SSS momentum continues to defy