First Look: Vols As Expected; Big CF Beat; Guide Unchanged; 8% Growth by YE

Research evidence excerpt

First Look: Vols As Expected; Big CF Beat; Guide Unchanged; 8% Growth by YE

TD Cowen Birchcliff Energy Ltd.

Global Research May 13, 2026

VALUATION METHODOLOGY AND RISKS

Valuation Methodology

Energy Producers - Junior & Intermediate:

Our target prices for the Canadian Integrateds, E&Ps and Energy Royalties are derived through

a combination of: i) a multiple (based on historical trading ranges) applied to forward Debt

Adjusted Cash Flow (DACF), and ii) a DCF-based Net Asset Value estimate (NAV).

Investment Risks

Risks include: the loss of key employees, disappointing drilling results, volatile commodity

prices, operating cost increases, capital cost overruns, product supply and demand, unplanned

third-party infrastructure outages, financing/access to capital, government regulations,

legislation, royalties, taxes, exchange rates, interest rates and environment and weather

concerns.

Risks To The Price Target

Key risks associated with our target price include business risks of the company and industry,

including, but not limited to: loss of key employees; drilling success; volatile commodity

prices and operating costs; capital cost overruns; product supply and demand; government

regulations and taxes; exchange rates; interest rates; environment and weather concerns; and

unfavourable tax legislation. In addition to industry risks, the key near-term risks specific to

Birchcliff include the following: 1) decline rates from new wells could be substantially higher

than expected; 2) its concentrated asset base; and 3) there is no guarantee that current

bank credit facilities will be renewed at current levels or that undrawn credit capacity will be

available to repay other creditors in the future.

2 TDSecurities.com