IO Monitoring MRD MolDX Approval Creates Potential Upside to ‘26 Guide

Research evidence excerpt

IO Monitoring MRD MolDX Approval Creates Potential Upside to ‘26 Guide

Life Science & Diagnostic Tools: Diagnostics

Personalis

TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC QUICK TAKE: COMPANY UPDATE

May 13, 2026

Price: $6.04 (05/12/2026) IO Monitoring MRD MolDX Approval Creates

Price Target: $10.00 Potential Upside to ‘26 Guide

BUY (1)

ESG SCORE: 56/100

Dan Brennan, CFA THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

646 562 1317

PSNL announced MolDX coverage for their NeXT Personal MRD test to monitor IO patients with

dan.brennan@tdsecurities.com

solid tumors. While expected (in '26), this was not baked into '26 guidance and hence should

Kyle Boucher drive upside. The solid tumor IO monitoring market is arguably larger than the combined

617 946 3735 addressable market for their first 2 indications. We see 5-13% upside to our revenue 2Q-4Q

kyle.boucher@tdsecurities.com

forecasts as a result.

William Ruby

646 562 1325 MolDX IO Monitoring Approval; Thoughts

william.ruby@tdsecurities.com

PSNL's NeXT Personal already has MolDX coverage for breast cancer surveillance and lung

Pradeep Ambrose, Ph.D. cancer surveillance, and this morning announced a 3rd MolDX approval, namely for IO

646 562 1378

monitoring in solid tumors. While anticipated, the approval was nonetheless not assumed in

pradeep.ambrose@tdsecurities.com

guidance. Given this, the size of the opportunity, and the stock's sharp recent sell-off, we are

Key Data not surprised to see the stock trading up 11%.

Symbol NASDAQ: PSNL

IO Monitoring: What’s the Opportunity?

Market Cap $632.5MM

PSNL’s first 2 MolDX MRD approvals were in: 1) breast surveillance (S2-3; all subtypes; ~130K

patients/yr opportunity); and 2) NSCLC surveillance (S1-3; ~100K patients/yr opportunity).

Surveillance reflects ~1 test / year for up to ~6 years, and from a MolDX price standpoint,