Topics Du Jour: Carbon Drama, SOBO, ENB, PPL, GEI, TOU, SCR

Research evidence excerpt

Topics Du Jour: Carbon Drama, SOBO, ENB, PPL, GEI, TOU, SCR

was hopeful a carbon deal

could be announced soon. The bid/ask in our view is largely tied to how quickly the Alberta carbon

tax reaches C$130/ton, and as of last week we understand the two sides were fairly far apart.

Additionally, Ottawa is considering streamlining project permitting further with new tweaks to the

impact assessment process. The whole carbon/regulatory situation in Canada certainly doesn't

lack for complexities, but we think the carbon tax is the biggest sticking point and the situation would

be further complicated should Premier Smith agree to a carbon framework that the producers are

unsatisfied with.

SOBO: Mgmt was reasonably open with respect to the ongoing Prairie Connector (i.e., SBT) open

season, addressing some of what’s come to light in the two months since the last call (SOBO

highlighted Bridger's presidential permit). Interestingly, mgmt commented that there could be 1

mmbpd of WCSB crude growth in the next 5-7 years. That figure likely includes not yet sanctioned

projects, but would support multiple egress projects. Buy, raising PT to C$53 (12x '28 EBITDA).

ENB: MLO2’s expected 2028 timing was reaffirmed on the call. While ENB highlighted MLO2's

full brownfield advantages relative to competitors (i.e., SBT), mgmt also brought up the positive

macro environment, suggesting to us that WCSB production growth could support multiple egress

projects. Buy, C$77 PT (13x '28 EBITDA).

PPL: Stock outperformed Friday following Marketing-driven beat and raise. The new overall

guidance range suggests ~C$520mn from Marketing which is slightly above what we expected

going into the print. We now expect PPL to achieve the upper end of its new guidance after the 1Q

beat.