Clean Earnings Point: 1Q Recap for HASI, CWEN, XIFR, CLNE, GEVO, BLDP

Research evidence excerpt

Clean Earnings Point: 1Q Recap for HASI, CWEN, XIFR, CLNE, GEVO, BLDP

ighted continued progress

on debottlenecking efforts, which are expected to drive a 10–15% EBITDA uplift, alongside site

upgrades to expand capacity toward ~75M gallons annually. The co guided to FY26 EBITDA of

$30M, vs. JEFe/Cons $39M/$37M, signaling a slower near-term ramp. We previously modeled

the co closer to its longer term $40M EBITDA target. That said, GEVO did announce preliminary

financing for its GevoND expansion, which would double capacity and potentially add up to $75M

of EBITDA. In addition, it announced IOI's for its ATJ-30 project financing after it pulled out of the

DOE loan earlier this year.

BLDP (+): 1Q +ve GM highlight improving cost optimization is working, but LT revenue ramp

uncertain. BLDP reported 1Q rev of $19.4M vs. JEFe/Cons $21.5M/$20.2M, posting strong GM at

14% vs. our prior estimate of (7%). The qtr also showed meaningful progress on cost discipline, with

opex down 36% y/y, leaving the co with a strong liquidity position (~$517M). Looking ahead, mgmt

pointed to continued growth across bus, rail, and stationary verticals, supported by multi-year OEM

partnerships and upcoming catalysts such as Project Forge (2H26), which should further improve

unit costs and margins. However, NT revenue visibility remains uneven, with results skewed toward

the back half of the year and still dependent on project conversion. While operational momentum is Dushyant Ailani, CFA * | Equity Analyst

improving, sustained top-line acceleration, and ultimately cash flow generation, remains contingent 1 (212) 778-8318 | dailani@jefferies.com

on clearer end-market adoption, keeping the LT ramp somewhat uncertain. Julien Dumoulin-Smith * | Equity Analyst

+1 (281) 774-2066 | jds@jefferies.com