Updating Model; 1Q Growth Decel, Profitability Healthy; Expect 2H26 Deal Close

Research evidence excerpt

Updating Model; 1Q Growth Decel, Profitability Healthy; Expect 2H26 Deal Close

USA | Medical Supplies & Devices

Penumbra EquityMayResearch11, 2026

ESTIMATE CHANGEUpdating Model; 1Q Growth Decel, Profitability

RATING HOLDHealthy; Expect 2H26 Deal Close

PRICE $322.23^

We are updating our PEN model to incorporate 4Q25 and 1Q26 results. 1Q26

sales growth decel'd across thrombectomy and E&A and across US and OUS PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $374.00 | +16%

geographies. Profitability remains a bright spot w/ ongoing GMX/OMX. PEN 52W HIGH-LOW $362.41 - $221.26

stopped disclosing thrombectomy/E&A geographic results in 1Q26, so we used FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 96.7% | 182.10

some estimation here. We continue to expect the acquisition by BSX to close MARKET CAP $12.7B

by YE26, but do expect some regulatory scrutiny (see our deal note from mid- TICKER PEN ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

Jan here). noted.

We are updating our PEN model to incorporate 4Q25 and 1Q26 results disclosed in PEN's PRs 10- Cal CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

K/Q. We note starting with 1Q26 results/10-Q, PEN is no longer breaking out US/OUS performance 2026 2027 2026 2027

across thrombectomy and embolization and access (E&A), nor providing FX impact to sales or REV <-1% -2% +1% +1%

adjusted EPS. We recap 1Q26 and 4Q25 results below and use recent fundamental trends, US/OUS

EPS +1% -3% +2% +1%

mix split, and FX movements to estimate some of these #s for 1Q. We note that 1Q26 reported

sales growth decel'd to +16% from 22% reported in 4Q25 (50 bps decel on 2 yr stack). Profitability

2026 ($) Q1A Q2 Q3 Q4 Cal

remains healthy w/ 1Q26 GMs +100 bps, adj OMs +30 bps y/y.

EPS 0.96 1.18 1.29 1.55 4.98

1Q26 recap: Sales of $375MM, +16% reported incl WW thrombectomy sales of $254MM, +12% PREV 4.93