Cleaner Story, But Still Constrained

Research evidence excerpt

Cleaner Story, But Still Constrained

Sweden | Property & Real Estate

Balder EquityMayResearch11, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGECleaner Story, But Still Constrained

The distribution of the Norion stake is strategically positive, simplifying the RATING HOLD

equity story and sharpening the focus on Balder’s core operations. That said, PRICE SEK54.10^

muted earnings growth, weak organic trends, and elevated leverage still limit PRICE TARGET | % TO PT SEK62.00 (SEK70.00) |

re-rating scope. Until clearer progress on deleveraging emerges, we believe the +15%

52W HIGH-LOW SEK75.20 - SEK53.00

case will remain balance sheet-driven rather than growth-driven.

FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 57.5% | 124.21

Deconsolidation of Norion. Balder delivered a mixed Q1, with headline earnings distorted by the MARKET CAP SEK64.2B | $7.0B

deconsolidation of Norion Bank. We are now fully removing Norion from our 2026 forecasts, TICKER BALDB SS

which results in lower but cleaner earnings visibility. As a consequence, we cut our 2026 PFPM to ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

SEK6.1bn (SEK5.16 per share) and recurring net profit to SEK5.57bn (SEK4.42 per share, -4.2% YoY).

While this reset improves comparability and better reflects the core business, it also highlights that

underlying growth remains subdued. FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

2026 2027 2026 2027

Operationally, the quarter was stable but uninspiring. LFL rental growth came in at 1.3%,

REV NM NM +2% +4%

confirming a clear slowdown versus FY-25 (2.7%), while occupancy declined to 94.7% YoY (stable

EPS -4% +1% NA NA

QoQ). On the valuation side, unrealized gains of SEK418m (+0.2%) confirm that the market is

stabilizing, but the magnitude remains limited, offering little support from revaluation tailwinds at