Sensitising Credit Growth to Lower Investor Mortgage Demand

Research evidence excerpt

Sensitising Credit Growth to Lower Investor Mortgage Demand

Australia | Banks EquityMayResearch11, 2026

Chart 1 - Housing credit growthSensitising Credit Growth to Lower Investor

25%

20%Mortgage Demand

15%

Ahead of tomorrow's Federal Budget, media reports indicate potential 10%

changes to the tax regime for investor-owned housing, which could reduce 5%0%

investor demand for existing housing. Investor loans represent ~20% of Dec-02 Mar-04 Jun-05 Sep-06 Dec-07 Mar-09 Jun-10 Sep-11 Dec-12 Mar-14 Jun-15 Sep-16 Dec-17 Mar-19 Jun-20 Sep-21 Dec-22 Mar-24 Jun-25 Sep-26 Dec-27 Mar-29

.total loans, and ~80% of investor approvals are for the purchase of existing Scenario Current Source: ABS, RBA, Jefferies research

housing. In a scenario where the latter goes to zero, our terminal housing Thison housetakesprices,no accountwhereofeverythe potential5% reductionsecond-orderin house pricesimpacts

reduces system mortgage growth by c.0.5%.

credit forecast would halve to 2% (assuming no offsets, which is unlikely).

ANZ/NAB least exposed.

Chart 2 - Investor lending approvals / total

approvals ($-value)

Potential budgetary changes to the taxation of investor housing: Ahead of tomorrow night’s 50%

40%Federal Budget (12-May-26), media reports (eg Financial Review, 10/05/26) indicate potential 45% 35%

changes to the tax regime for investor-owned housing (i.e. non-owner-occupiers). These 30%25%

measures are expected to apply to existing properties only, with off-the-plan developments 20%15%10%

exempt, and include: 5%0%

Dec-02 Mar-04 Jun-05 Sep-06 Dec-07 Mar-09 Jun-10 Sep-11 Dec-12 Mar-14 Jun-15 Sep-16 Dec-17 Mar-19 Jun-20 Sep-21 Dec-22 Mar-24 Jun-25 Sep-26 Dec-27 Mar-29

1. Capital gains tax (CGT): The current 50% CGT discount is set to be wound back, with Scenario Current