Who wins the Economics World Cup? 48 economies competing on data, not goals

Research evidence excerpt

Who wins the Economics World Cup? 48 economies competing on data, not goals

13 May 2026

Who wins the Economics EconomicsGlobal

World Cup?

48 economies competing on data, not goals

◆ A ‘World Cup’ competed across nine key indicators covering James Pomeroy

growth, fiscal risks and structural factors… Global Economist

HSBC Bank plc

james.pomeroy@hsbc.com

◆ …would likely lead to victory for Switzerland, Saudi Arabia or +44 20 7991 6714

Norway… Bethan Ellis

Global Economist

◆ …although many of the world’s most impressive economies bethan.ellis@hsbc.com

aren’t at the tournament in North America +44 20 7991 6714

For the past three editions of the Football World Cup, we have run our own version of

the tournament – assessing teams (or economies) using economic data, rather than

the chances of success on the pitch. This year’s event, taking place in the US,

Mexico, and Canada, expands the tournament from 32 teams to 48 – making this our

biggest edition ever, with analysis of every “team” that has qualified for the finals.

We have chosen nine indicators for which we can get coverage for all economies in

the tournament, with the qualification of some smaller nations such as Cape Verde

and Curaçao complicating things slightly. Our range of metrics covers recent growth

and inflation, imbalances such as fiscal positions and current accounts, and relevant

long- and short-term risks – such as AI adoption, birth rates, export concentration and

oil and gas import reliance.

We can select one of each of these variables for each round of matches – eight in

total to the final – and draw out a winner. Of course, the eventual winner hinges

greatly on which round we choose to allocate to each economic variable, but some

economies are more likely to reach the latter stages given their economic