LGND: Model Update

Research evidence excerpt

LGND: Model Update

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Risks to rating and price targetpotential royalties and milestones on several drugs currently

Ligand faces risks related to its key royalty revenuein different phases of development (we include 25 royalties

contributors in the event sales slow or decline versusin our forecasts vs. 200+ programs - including commercial

current expectations. The company is also reliant ondrugs - where LGND has economic rights), in addition

Captisol revenues and any impact to this business due toto management’s ability to continue to pursue accretive

manufacturing, IP or other factors could negatively influenceacquisitions, should allow the company to realize growing

the operations. While well-diversified, the company makescash flows beyond our 10-year forecast period supporting our

strategic company acquisitions and integration efforts couldterminal growth assumption of 3.0%. Our PT supports our

fall short of expectations. Drugs in development also faceOutperform rating.

heightened risk versus those in market. Examples include

Upside scenario clinical trial disappointments, failure to receive approvals,

Our upside scenario valuation of $337/sh assumes success poor reimbursement, unexpected patent expirations and

in key pipeline drugs and a higher recognition of milestone competitor new drug profiles. In the event acquisitions are

payments by the company with the rest of our DCF not completed in line with management’s targets, or financing

assumptions remaining the same (8.5% discount rate; 3% is not accessible, Ligand’s share value could be impaired.

TGR). Finally, due to a previous distribution/merger the company

could face tax liabilities if the process were not viewed as a

Downside scenario reorganization under 368(a) of the tax code.