MLTX: 1Q26: HS Approvability Sounds Straightforward, Though We Expect Competitive Commercial Landscape

Research evidence excerpt

MLTX: 1Q26: HS Approvability Sounds Straightforward, Though We Expect Competitive Commercial Landscape

RBC Capital Markets, LLC

Brian Abrahams, M.D. (Head of Global Healthcare Research)

(212) 858-7066, brian.abrahams@rbc.com

Kevin Meli, Ph.D. (Senior Associate)

(212) 548-3110, kevin.meli@rbccm.com

Nevin Varghese, Ph.D. (Analyst)

(212) 301-1609, nevin.varghese@rbccm.com

May 11, 2026

MoonLake Immunotherapeutics Sector Perform

Speculative RiskRESEARCH 1Q26: HS Approvability Sounds Straightforward, NASDAQ: MLTX; USD 17.06

Though We Expect Competitive Commercial Price Target USD 16.00 ↑ 13.00

Landscape Scenario Analysis*

Our view: The company has had its pre-BLA meeting with the FDA, Downside Price Current Upside

suggesting a clear path to submission in line with prior commentary Scenario Target Price Scenario

following the type B meeting in December. We continue to believe that 5.00 16.00 17.06 30.00

approvability is not the key overhang to the story, as we can see SLK 71% 6% 76%EQUITY approved given that it has been tested across multiple inflammatory *Implied Total Returns

indications, though believe competitive dynamics will determine ultimate Key Statistics

uptake, with some KOLs viewing bime more favorably. Key PsA data mid-'26 Shares O/S (MM): 63.1 Market Cap (MM): 1,076

and 4Q26 remain key catalysts, though upside may be limited given Dividend: 0.00 Yield: 0.0%

expectations for limited topline details and a high bar in that indication. PT Avg. Daily Volume: 1,118,321

to $16 on model adjustment and reflecting higher approvability likelihood RBC Estimates

in HS. FY Dec 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E

EPS, Ops Diluted (3.53) (3.80) (2.90) (2.54)

Key points: Prev. (4.01) (3.33) (2.81)

Financials. R&D came in at $54.5M, slightly below our $57M est., while P/E NM NM NM NM