WTC: Revisiting Key Debates Post Channel Checks

Research evidence excerpt

WTC: Revisiting Key Debates Post Channel Checks

ip. We highlight CW's strategic value to DSV as it drives their

main profit-engine (Air & Sea) and believe a decision to switch necessitates

a multi-year phased migration and estimate the impact to be ~$40-50m to

WTC. More details at DSV conference, our base case is for status quo of

30/70 Tango/CW workloads to remain.

Key Debate #2: What's The Risk of In-Housing Contagion? We believe in-

housing remains a difficult proposition and oversimplifies the complexity of

development, migration, and ongoing maintenance. AI coding insufficient

to overcome all software barriers as our analysis shows coding accounts

for only ~20% of development costs with maintenance costs ~3-4x

development costs over total lifecycle ownership. Finally, we believe

vendor neutral solutions remain best placed to take advantage of

proprietary data and scale R&D vs. in-house solutions.

Key Debate #3/4: Any Churn & Possibility of Disbursement Billing?

CVP mostly an execution problem rather than a fundamental pushback

against transaction-based pricing in our view. Channel checks/website

traffic suggest some evidence of churn within smaller customers and also

surprisingly positive about the potential for industry adoption of a pass-

through model, but highlighted TPP an inhibitor to early adoption.

Key Debate #5: Will LGFFs Adopt CVP? LGFFs likely hold out until WTCs AI

value proposition becomes clearer, with the product roadmap in its current

state unlikely enough to entice LGFFs to fast-track procurement. Base case

is LGFFs maintain a preference for STL until AI demonstrates tangible ROI

unbuildable elsewhere, with conversion more an FY27+ story.

Limited Estimate Changes, Valuation Updated to Reflect Opaque AI

Roadmap, Retain Outperform with new $70/PT.