BP.: A second chance at a first impression, Upgrading to Outperform

Research evidence excerpt

BP.: A second chance at a first impression, Upgrading to Outperform

RBC Europe Limited

Biraj Borkhataria, CFA (Head of Global Energy Transition

Research)

+44 20 7029 7556, biraj.borkhataria@rbccm.com

Adnan Dhanani, CFA (Analyst)

+44 20 7029 7810, adnan.dhanani@rbccm.com

Matthew Russell (Associate)

+44 20 4557 7244, matthew.russell@rbccm.com

May 11, 2026

BP p.l.c. Outperform (prev: Sector Perform)RESEARCH A second chance at a first impression, Upgrading to LSE: BP.; GBp 535.90; NYSE: BP

Outperform Price Target GBp 700

Our view: Following a number of missteps, the current windfall presents Scenario Analysis*

a second chance for BP to deleverage and restore financial health, while it Downside Current Price Upside

should also help put the company on firmer footing for the coming years. Scenario Price Target Scenario

We see the combination of strong commodity prices, recent exploration 440.00 535.90 700.00 840.00

success and new management providing an opportunity to restore investor 13% 35% 61%EQUITY confidence. We upgrade to Outperform. *Implied Total Returns

Key Statistics

Key points: Shares O/S (MM): 15,487.0 Market Cap (MM): 82,995

Current commodity price environment provides another chance to Dividend: 0.34 Yield: 4.7%

deleverage. We have been critical of BP's capital allocation over recent Market Cap in GBP Avg. Daily Volume: 35,860,950

years, across both its transition efforts and decisions made in its core

business. Looking forward, another unexpected windfall gives BP another RBC Estimates

chance to put the business on firmer footing. Given material damage FY Dec 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E

on energy infrastructure in the Middle East as well as material inventory Production, net 2.31 2.29 2.37 2.35 (mboe/d)