Euro & US Integrated Energy

Research evidence excerpt

Euro & US Integrated Energy

EQUITY RESEARCH

May 11, 2026 RBC Europe Limited

Biraj Borkhataria, CFA (Head of

Global Energy Transition Research)Euro & US Integrated Energy +44 20 7029 7556,

Being comfortable with the uncomfortable, Upgrading BP to Outperform biraj.borkhataria@rbccm.comVictoria McCulloch, CA (Analyst)

Our view: Daily gyrations in commodity prices have left investors and corporates in a state of flux, with YTD daily oil price moves in absolute terms +44 20 7429 8530, victoria.mcculloch@rbccm.com

4x higher the average over the last five years. It is clear to us that the majors are set to see a significant wall of FCF hit the books through the year, Adnan Dhanani, CFA (Analyst)

and we anticipate that many will prioritise balance sheets in the face of uncertainty, although we do anticipate upstream activity levels to start +44 20 7029 7810,

creeping higher later this year. As we think about the environment following an eventual 'peace deal', we continue to like the risk-reward for the adnan.dhanani@rbccm.com

Matthew Russell (Associate)

group here, with inventory re-builds across crude, gas and oil products setting the stage for higher prices over the medium term. +44 20 4557 7244,

matthew.russell@rbccm.com

Being comfortable with the uncomfortable. Both crude differentials and refining margin capture saw much wider dispersion than normal this

quarter, while stock prices continue to trade on geopolitical headlines. With only one month of higher commodity prices reported (March), and the

2Q and beyond outlook remaining uncertain, we noted two major corporate camps this quarter. Many took the 'sit on hands' approach (EQNR, CVX,

XOM, REP) and maintained guidance, capital spending and distributions, electing to wait until there was more clarity.