ROCHE : CFO breakfast takeaways

Research evidence excerpt

ROCHE : CFO breakfast takeaways

Refinitiv

– 2028 – trontinemab (amyloid targeting brain shuttle in Alzheimer’s) and NXT007 (hemophillia); BNPP/cons peak

risk-adjusted sales CHF1.6/2.2bn and CHF2.2/0.3bn respectively).

– 2029 – prasinezumab in Parkinson’s; BNPP/cons peak risk-adjusted sales CHF1.2/0.7bn.

With respect to the outlook Roche sees a biosimilar revenue hit of CHF7bn with current growth drivers and future

pipeline each contributing CHF8bn respectively. Pipeline assets that Roche considers underappreciated by the market

include Enspryng in MOGAD (Ph III data demonstrated a 68% relapse reduction - CHF0.5bn peak sales), the obesity

portfolio (Ph II combo data for petre and GLP-1/GIP due 2027), cevostamab in RRMM, CKD4/2i in BC, allogeneic CART

in hematology, nivegacetor in AD, P-CD19 xCD20 in MS, Gazyva in SLE, p400xTL1A bispecific in UC,

bispecific/allogenic CART in autoimmune, and VEGF-IL5 DutaFab in DME. We view recent Ph II petrelintide data as

disappointing and note with interest that management are talking up the Ph II combo study with CT-388 rather than the

opportunity as monotherapy.

Investment Thesis

Recent pipeline newsflow has been unhelpful for the equity story and we anticipate the peak sales opportunity for

fenebrutinib/giredestrant/obesity will continue to be debated through 2026, with significant read outs to drive broader

pipeline expectations not due until 2027. Our recent trawl through the Annual Report also highlights Roche’s cost of

capital has risen 60bps to 7.6% versus last year contributing to our recent downgrade to Neutral and DCF-derived TP

of CHF305 implying a 2027e PE of 15x. We model a 2025-30e sales/EPS CAGR 5/8% versus the sector offering 6/9%.

Figure 1: Diagnostics Division P&L Summary; BNPP vs consensus