ZURICH : Q1 2026: Premium growth well ahead of expectations

Research evidence excerpt

ZURICH : Q1 2026: Premium growth well ahead of expectations

EQUITIES

INSURANCE

ZURICH UNDERPERFORMPRICE* CHF541.0  TARGET PRICE CHF505 (DOWNSIDE 7%)

ZURICH ADR UNDERPERFORMPRICE* USD34.7  TARGET PRICE USD32 (DOWNSIDE 8%)

FLASH NOTE

Q1 2026: Premium growth well ahead of expectations

13 MAY 2026 Securities Research Report Production time: 06:51* (London time)

Research Analyst & Publishing Entities

Iain Pearce BNP Paribas London Branch +44 7435 660 628 iain.pearce@uk.bnpparibas.com

What happened?

Zurich has released its Q1 trading statement. These statements usually contain minimal information to get excited

about, however this release shows very positive trading momentum in the P&C business with growth of 8% on a lfl

basis (17% on a reported basis), including 9% in the Commercial business. This is significantly ahead of our forecast

and well ahead of the implied run-rate in consensus. Whilst Life missed expectations and Farmers was relatively in line

with the full year run-rate, we expect that the P&C result will see the shares react positively.

BNPP View:

Strong growth in P&C: GWP rose 8% on a reported basis, 17% on a currency adjusted basis to a consensus full year

expectation of 7% reported growth and 5% lfl growth forecast in the quarter by BNPPE. This was driven by a

combination of the very strong trends in the Commercial business which saw 9% lfl growth, with this coming from North

America and Europe, and solid momentum in the Retail business. This has driven the ahead of expectation delivery.

Construction volume builds up: The company has reported that the construction business grew volume by 21% yoy.

This high margin segment has seen growth supported by demand for Data Centre coverage and infrastructure with

demand coming from Europe and the US.