Crossing Borders, Beating Estimates (Despite the Geopolitical Impacts)

Research evidence excerpt

Crossing Borders, Beating Estimates (Despite the Geopolitical Impacts)

C O M PA N Y N O T E

M a y 1 3 , 2 0 2 6

Global-e Online Ltd. (GLBE) Overweight

CONCLUSION PRICE: US$30.23

GLBE delivered a 1Q26 revenue beat of ~1% and raised the FY26 guide above the beat TARGET: US$48.00

(30% y/y growth vs. 29% prior), despite GMV headwinds in 1Q from the war in Iran (ME is 14x CY30E EV/FCF, discounted back 3 years

~5% of GMV, with 1% of GMV specifically impacted by the conflict) and less FX tailwinds by 20%. This assumes $553M net cash and

than expected (GMV headwinds plus FX impacted 1Q growth by 1 pt+). In the most 174M shares.

impacted geos, mgmt has encouragingly already seen GMV trends bottom and largely

Billy Fitzsimmons, CFAcome back to pre-conflict levels. We view the beat in light of these factors as evidence GLBE Sr. Research Analyst, Piper Sandler & Co.

is showing upside in the key growth initiatives (Managed Markets 2.0, value-added services 312 281-3438, billy.fitzsimmons@psc.com

like Duty Drawback and Borderfree, multi-local) and highlights the resilience/diversification Hannah Rudoff

of the business. Given the FY27 EV/FCF ex-SBC of 13x, we continue to believe GLBE has Research Analyst, Piper Sandler & Co.

one of the better risk/reward profiles in our coverage. Maintain OW rating and $48 PT. 503 275-8313, hannah.rudoff@psc.com

J.R. Herrera

• Strong 40% GMV Growth + 33% Revenue Growth. GMV grew 40% y/y to $1.74B Research Analyst, Piper Sandler & Co.

503 275-8314, jr.herrera@psc.com (vs. 38% growth in 4Q), representing a $17M beat to the midpoint guide (vs. $13M

beat in 1Q25), driven by volume growth from existing merchants and new launches. Changes Previous Current

Same store sales came in well above historical averages in 1Q, as expected, driven Rating — Overweight