Off-Calendar Survey, Preview, & Setups | Who’s Lifting the Cup?

Research evidence excerpt

Off-Calendar Survey, Preview, & Setups | Who’s Lifting the Cup?

8) +15% was above average given AI-server strength at the expense of traditional INDUSTRY RISKS

server. Inputs tie to 2-3% upside / >50% Y/Y growth. ISG estimates look low, and Macroeconomic, IT Spending, Competition /

we expect a raise here especially with memory pass-through. HPE (6/1) -24% net ASPs, & Valuations

is concerning as more came in 'below' plan, particularly in Storage, Greenlake, and

Campus. Juniper's DC business is going well unsurprisingly. Comps become challenging

in F2H, and Aruba replacements are picking up from competitors. We have concern

around supply availability here and EPS / EBITDA setup.

• Data Infrastructure: NTNX (5/27) +20% net is encouraging, but while it's slightly below

average, it ties back to a ~1.5% beat / ~$695M. The partnership pull-through looks great

across Dell + Cisco, with Pure building nicely. Nutanix saw a pickup in AHV replacements

(including a large +$10M win). FQ3 metric setup looks good but many question if the

team haircut enough for the indirect hardware exposure / supply chain issues. P (5/27)

+19% is ~inline with the average, implying a 1-2% beat / ~$1.02B on FA, FB, and

Portworx strength. Estimates seem setup well for a print that could see >30% Y/Y growth,

though we expect some to question if this makes it 'peak growth' in C1H26 and 'empty

memory pass-through calories'. Debate remains around other large cloud wins. RBRK

(6/4) +27% net is well-above average, exhibiting strength with Enterprise+ packages.

Inputs point to 8-9% sales beat and 1-2% ARR upside / ~$100M NNARR. Last year,

CFO raised ARR guide by ~FQ1's upside, implying potential ~27% ARR growth guide.

• Connectivity & Communication SW: IOT (6/4) should be able to post ~3% upside /