Tryg A/S: Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

Tryg A/S: Risk Reward Update

ey Research, Morgan Stanley Institutional Equities Division. The probabilities of our Bull,

Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 13

May 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here

BULL CASE DKr 195.00 BASE CASE DKr 165.00 BEAR CASE DKr 120.00

20.6x FY27e EPS 17.5x base case FY27e EPS 12.8x FY27e EPS

In our bull case, Tryg is able to beat its We expect Tryg to print a 2027e group CoR Our bear case assumes that Tryg misses

synergy targets, and strong brand loyalty of c81% and Underlying claims ratio of synergy targets, and retention falls so

allows it to grow faster than expected. ~68%. The group grows at ~4% over 2025- premium growth underdelivers, inflation is

Inflation falls faster than expected while 28e. We use a cost of equity of 8.5% with a persistent and unexpected, while portfolio

portfolio actions in Corporate deliver more 4.7% cost of debt. Adjusting for relative risk actions in Corporate fail to stabilise profits.

stable underwriting profits than expected. in each division implies P/E multiples of Buyback underdelivers vs our base case of

Buyback is more than our base case 18.9x for Private (most stable) and 15.9x for DKK 1,000m/year. We apply a 200bps

assumption of DKK 1,000m/year. We apply Commercial (less stable than Retail). higher cost of capital across the group

a 75-100bps lower cost of capital across the implying P/E multiples of 14.5x for Private

group, implying P/E multiples of 24.1x for and 13.1x for Commercial.

Private and 21.5x for Commercial.