T&D Holdings: F3/26 Results: Strong Profits but Limited Room for Expectations on EV Growth

Research evidence excerpt

T&D Holdings: F3/26 Results: Strong Profits but Limited Room for Expectations on EV Growth

Update

May 15, 2026 07:04 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MT&D Holdings (8795) | Japan Atsuro Takemura

Equity Analyst

F3/26 Results: Strong Profits Atsuro.Takemura@morganstanleymufg.comMia Nagasaka +81 3 6836-5429

Mia.Nagasaka@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8406

but Limited Room for

T&D Holdings (8795.T, 8795 JT)

Insurance | JapanExpectations on EV Growth

Stock Rating Equal-weight

Industry View Attractive

Price target ¥3,870

Reaction to earnings Shr price, close (May 14, 2026) ¥4,002

Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn) ¥1,943.2

Unchanged Modest upside Modest revision higher Avg daily trading value (bn) ¥6.8

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

l Comparison of consensus vs actual: Adjusted profit for F3/26 came in

at ¥158.5bn, exceeding consensus of ¥148.4bn by +7%. F3/27 guidance

calls for adjusted profit of¥172.0bn, +3.9% above the ¥165.5bn

consensus.

l Surprises: The company’s adjusted profit guidance was a surprise. The

spread outlook at Taiyo Life and Daido Life may have been stronger than

market expectations.

l That said, guidance for value of new business is ¥172.0bn, broadly flat

YoY. Given that new business margins declined in 4Q F3/26, it may be

difficult to adopt an optimistic view at this stage regarding growth

expectations.

l Recommended action: Maintain a neutral stance. Based on F3/27

guidance, the dividend yield is in the low 4% range, which should

support share price performance. However, concerns over private credit

exposure and increased policy surrenders associated with rising interest

rates are likely to continue to depress upside.