U.S. Data Pulse: Empire Manufacturing Survey Points to Continued Resilience

Research evidence excerpt

U.S. Data Pulse: Empire Manufacturing Survey Points to Continued Resilience

UpdateM

Empire Survey Signals Stronger Manufacturing Momentum

in May

Manufacturing activity expanded in May, according to the Empire State Manufacturing

Survey. The headline business conditions index rose 8.6 points to 19.6 in May, well above

its 6-month average.

Demand and production continued to to show strength and resilience. The shipments

index decreased 1.3 points to 18.9, remaining firmly positive and extending the strength

seen in the prior month. The new orders index rose 3.4 points to 22.7, pointing to positive

demand and future production.

Labor demand from manufacturers showed improvement. The index for number of

employees edged down to 8.3, but still marked a fourth consecutive month of expansion.

The average workweek index fell to 11.5 from 13.7, though it remained at a meaningfully

positive pace.

Supply chain & inventories: delivery time lengthened for a fourth consecutive month. The

delivery time index moved up to 20.4 from 12.1, remaining meaningfully higher than its

average of 5.9 and 1.9 in 1Q26 and 4Q25. Inventories increased, with the index rising 4.6

points to 9.7.

Prices: pressure from higher oil prices on input costs remained elevated. The prices paid

index rose 11.6 points to 62.6 following a sharp rise in April, reflecting ongoing pressure

from elevated energy prices. The prices received index increased to 31.8, 10.0 higher than

its April reading. The rise in prices received suggests that manufacturers are passing

through their cost pressure to buyers. Both indices were at their highest since September

2022.

Overall, firmer demand and continued expansion in output point to some resilience in the

manufacturing sector.