Week Ahead in Latin America: LatAm: Policy Dilemmas amid External Volatility

Research evidence excerpt

Week Ahead in Latin America: LatAm: Policy Dilemmas amid External Volatility

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May 15, 2026 07:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A.+MWeek Ahead in Latin America | Latin America Fernando D Sedano

Chief LatAm Ex-Brazil Economist

LatAm: Policy Dilemmas amid Fernando.Sedano@morganstanley.comAna Madeira +55 11 3048-6605

Economist

Ana.Madeira@morganstanley.com +55 11 3048-9582

External Volatility Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Nicolas Eterovic

This week we share our Mid-Year Outlook recap: LatAm Economist

Nicolas.Eterovic@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1245

policymakers continue to navigate a volatile backdrop, balancing

Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A.+

Middle East-driven inflation risks against still-fragile growth. Thiago A. Machado, CFA

Next week, focus on GDP in Mexico, Peru, and Chile; Mexico Economist

Thiago.Machado@morganstanley.com +55 11 3048-6249

minutes and CPI; activity data in Brazil and Argentina. Julia Lobato Barbosa

LatAm in focus… LatAm policymakers Exhibit 1: LatAm: key forecasts Julia.Lobato.Barbosa@morganstanley.com +55 11 3048-6016

continue to navigate an increasingly Country 2025 Real GDP2026Egrowth (%)2027E 2025 Inflation2026E(EOP, %) 2027E 2025 Policy Rate2026E(EOP, %)2027E

Argentina* 4.4 3.1 2.2 31.5 28.0 20.5 27.06 20.00 18.00

volatile global backdrop, balancing the ChileBrazil 2.52.3 1.82.0 3.11.6 3.44.3 4.05.0 3.04.0 15.004.50 13.004.50 10.504.50

Colombia 2.6 2.5 2.4 5.1 7.0 4.8 9.25 13.75 13.75

inflationary consequences of the Middle PeruMexico 3.40.6 3.81.1 3.71.7 1.53.7 5.54.4 3.03.8 4.257.00 4.256.50 4.256.50

East conflict against still-fragile growth Source: BCRA, BCB, BCCh, Banxico, BanRep, BCRP, Morgan

Stanley LatAm Economics.

dynamics. While part of the oil shock has

already passed through to inflation across the region, the key question now is