Peru Economics & Strategy: Central Bank Review: BCRP Holds at 4.25% – Patience Remains

Research evidence excerpt

Peru Economics & Strategy: Central Bank Review: BCRP Holds at 4.25% – Patience Remains

Idea

May 15, 2026 02:23 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMPeru Economics & Strategy | North America Nicolas Eterovic

Economist

Central Bank Review: BCRP Nicolas.Eterovic@morganstanley.comSofia Palacios +1 212 761-1245

Strategist

Sofia.Palacios@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0428

Holds at 4.25% – Patience Ioana Zamfir

Ioana.Zamfir@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4012

Remains Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A.+

Julia Lobato Barbosa

Julia.Lobato.Barbosa@morganstanley.com +55 11 3048-6016

Key Takeaways

BCRP held rates constant at 4.25%, in line with expectations.

The recent inflation spike is seen as temporary supply shocks rather than

demand, with expectations still anchored and no clear second-round effects.

We remain neutral on Soberanos as tight spreads and elevated oil prices limit

upside, with elections and global drivers likely to dominate curve dynamics.

Central bank decision: BCRP kept rates unchanged at 4.25%.

Consensus expectations: Economist consensus and market pricing pointed to an on

hold decision.

Rationale for the decision: The BCRP kept the policy rate unchanged at 4.25% in

May, in line with expectations, maintaining a neutral and patient stance despite the

recent inflation shock. The Board continues to view the acceleration in inflation as

largely temporary and supply-driven, reflecting the combined impact of higher

global oil prices, the Camisea gas disruption, and adverse weather conditions rather

than excess domestic demand.

Despite the inflation surprise, the conditions for a policy response remain absent in

the BCRP’s view. Inflation expectations have risen but remain within the target

range, with 12-month expectations increasing to 2.82% in April. Meanwhile, activity