CEEMEA Economics Weekly: Growth, Interrupted

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CEEMEA Economics Weekly: Growth, Interrupted

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May 15, 2026 03:30 AM GMT

RMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary LimitedMCEEMEA Economics Weekly | EEMEA Andrea Masia

Economist

Growth, Interrupted Andrea.Masia@rmbmorganstanley.comMorgan Stanley & Co. International plc +27 11 587-0820

Georgi Deyanov

The energy shock leads to slower growth, stickier inflation and EconomistGeorgi.Deyanov@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-7006

changing central bank reaction functions, but we remain Yomna Moheieldin

constructive on the medium-term story. Next week, we expect Economist

Yomna.Moheieldin@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-0771

inflation in South Africa to accelerate and the CBE to remain on

Recent Research Highlights

hold.

CEEMEA Economics Mid-Year Outlook: Shifting

The CEEMEA outlook is on shifting sands: Earlier this week we published our Mid- Sands

Year Outlook. Against an uncertain energy outlook, we see growth softening rather Egypt: CBE Preview: Holding the Line

than stalling. Persistent inflation risks make future easing cycles conditional on Czech Republic: CNB Review: A Whipsaw Rate

expectations and underlying core measures. Some central banks may temporarily Path

reverse course. Poland: NBP Review: In the Waiting Zone

South Africa: Corporate Margins and Inflation

• Higher energy prices and potential food-price pressures shape the near-

Transmission

term inflation path: CE3 inflation remains within tolerance bands, helped by

Hungary: NBH Review: Patience in Abundance

policy measures, while a stronger currency help contain inflation in Israel. In

Saudi Arabia: 1Q26 Oil Drag Offset by Non-Oil

Turkey and Egypt, disinflation is interrupted, while South Africa faces

Growth

inflation moving above SARB tolerance.

EM: Morgan Stanley IMF Policy Pulse Takeaways