Essex Property Trust Higher Estimates, Which We Think Is Expected

Research evidence excerpt

Essex Property Trust Higher Estimates, Which We Think Is Expected

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

15 May 2026

Essex Property Trust Underweight

ESS, ESS US

Higher Estimates, Which We Think Is Expected Price (15 May 26):$267.06

▲Price Target (Dec-26):$275.00

Prior (Dec-26):$272.00

We updated our ESS model following the company’s 1Q26 earnings report. Our

2026 and 2027 Core FFO/share estimates are moving up from $16.02 and $16.62, REITs & Real Estate Services

respectively, to $16.15 (+1% y/y) and $16.78 (+4% y/y). Bloomberg consensus Anthony Paolone, CFA AC

stands at $16.06 and $16.58. For 2026, our estimate is near the high end of company (1-212) 622-6682

guidance of $15.69-16.19 ($15.94 midpoint). anthony.paolone@jpmorgan.com

Michael W. Mueller, CFA

Our updated estimates incorporate headwinds regarding the $90 million in high- (1-212) 622-6689

yielding structured finance redemptions expected to occur in 2Q. We further michael.w.mueller@jpmorgan.com

incorporate $77.2 million in additional redemptions later in 2026. This headwind Hong Zhang

is largely offset by better NOI, and we think expectations are for a guidance raise (1-212) 622-6416

hongliang.zhang@jpmorgan.com

coming ahead of the NAREIT conference in early June or along with 2Q earnings

Nahom Tesfazghi

results.

(1-212) 622 4884

nahom.tesfazghi@jpmchase.com

Trends in Northern California (~40% of NOI) are strong on the fundamental side,

Daniella De Armas Rosales

and we think as long as the balance of ESS’s portfolio (Southern California and (1-212) 622-0050

Seattle) holds the line, there should be upside to numbers. The company’s overall daniella.dearmasrosales@jpmchase.com

blended spreads in 1Q were 1.4%, and management noted that for April it achieved J.P. Morgan Securities LLC