Global Fixed Income Technical Update Curve steepens as DM bonds threaten longer-term range support; a blowoff or shift to a new regime?

Research evidence excerpt

Global Fixed Income Technical Update Curve steepens as DM bonds threaten longer-term range support; a blowoff or shift to a new regime?

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

15 May 2026

Global Fixed Income Technical

Update

Curve steepens as DM bonds threaten longer-term

range support; a blowoff or shift to a new regime?

• It isn’t just about energy markets anymore, or at least not directly. While this Technical Strategy

AC week’s weakness has been non-US and long-end led, it has dragged policy rate Jason Hunter

expectations with it and to an extreme versus its relationship with crude during (1-212) 270-0034

the Middle East conflict period. The move has also pushed our high-frequency jason.x.hunter@jpmorgan.com

indicators back into extreme oversold territory. Even before Friday’s sizable J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

extension to higher yields, our TY premium-weighted Put/Call ratio Z-score

indicator was near 2 standard deviations oversold.

• The 2-year note yield rise extended into the cheaper end of our anticipated

range support zone at 4.01-4.11%. While the late-week bearish momentum

risks an overshoot, we are watching for a bullish trend reversal from near

current levels. A break through 3.95-4.00% would confirm a trend reversal and

initially seek the 3.845-3.88% resistance zone.

• The 30-year bond challenges the 5.15-5.18% cycle cheaps and retains a bearish

trend bias while cheaper than the 4.915-4.93% short-term resistance zone. A

break to higher yields would seek the 5.30% Sep 2024-Oct 2025 .618 swing

objective.

• The 10-year Bund broke through 3.13% local range support (now key tactical

resistance) and extended toward the 3.245% 2025-2026 channel trend line. The

market is oversold, which leaves us looking for a bearish trend reversal and