North American Utilities Model Updates: MDU & NWE

Research evidence excerpt

North American Utilities Model Updates: MDU & NWE

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

15 May 2026

North American Utilities

Model Updates: MDU & NWE

We are updating our models for recent results, reports, and filings. Please see our North American Utilities

ACchanges below. On the heels of the Bakken East capex estimate, we continue to Aidan C Kelly

track mixed feedback on MDU, balanced by views that frame Bakken East as (1-212) 622-4912

supporting a higher-than-expected earnings growth outlook in 2029+ versus aidan.x.kelly@jpmchase.com

skepticism over Bakken production assumptions required to support the project’s Jeremy Tonet, CFA

size and potential partnership implications. Admittedly, we view MDU’s ability to (1-212) 622-4915

quantify capex at this stage as an affirmative signal, though acknowledge jeremy.b.tonet@jpmorgan.com

successful execution on the remaining 60% of agreements may be required to drive Eli Jossen, CFA

incremental investor confidence (we expect this to take center stage at AGA). (1-212) 622-4113

eli.jossen@jpmchase.com

Accordingly, we now risk-weight Bakken East’s contribution to our valuation to

Diana Nilesreflect this uncertainty, supporting a $24 YE26 PT (up from $22).

(1-212) 622-3328

• MDU reported 1Q26 EPS of $0.39, falling short of the $0.42 JPMe/Street diana.niles@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities LLC

median estimates. MDU disclosed a ~$2.7-3.2bn total capex opportunity for its

Bakken East project, well above external sources that previously projected ~

$1.2-1.6bn and marking a substantial source of upside to MDU’s base $3.1bn

capital plan. Key assumptions behind the project capex forecast include1) 353

miles of mainline pipeline; 2) 21 miles of lateral pipelines, and 3) new