J.P. Morgan Market Watch

Research evidence excerpt

J.P. Morgan Market Watch

er tactical longs with a tight stop as the increase in rates so we tighten our spread target. As SOFR

we see the market struggling to sustain a material move high- is forecast to remain unchanged through 2026, we expect

er in yields, and keep bearish option hedges via fronts/greens leverage loan spreads remain at 525bp by YE, implying a

conditional bear flatteners. In the UK, domestic political 4.0% return (JPM HY and LL Morning Intelligence, May 5th).

uncertainty is elevated and geopolitical risks have increased,

but we see current yields as attractive for long-term investors Figure 1: Year-to-date returns

and add longs in 10y gilts. In Japan, the BoJ minutes rein- %

force a hawkish bias. With the market already pricing in two

hikes by year-end this limits upside in front-end yields, but a

buyers’ strike at the long end biases the curve steeper. We

keep 5s/20s steepeners (GFIMS, May 15th).

In EM, our Client Survey suggests EM investors have added

to bearish exposure to local bonds while reducing under-

weights in EM FX. The NBH introduced measures to slow

FX appreciation, but we remain bullish on both FX and rates.

We stay neutral EM local duration via OWs in Hungary, Bra-

zil and Mexico, offset by UWs in Chile and Peru as well as a

short duration overlay (EMOS, Apr 30th).

Credit

We remain cautious Euro credit and continue to hold

iTraxx Main 75bp June payer option. Higher global infla- Source: J.P. Morgan

tion amid an energy shock from the Middle East conflict is

Currenciesposing a downside risk to credit valuations and driving rates

volatility. The most important issue is the pace of rates repric- In DM FX, we sell EUR/USD via 1.1650/1.14 3m put spread

ing rather than a specific yield threshold, in our view.