ORIX (8591) Impact of Toshiba’s realization of gains on Kioxia shares

Research evidence excerpt

ORIX (8591) Impact of Toshiba’s realization of gains on Kioxia shares

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

16 May 2026

ORIX (8591) Neutral

8591.T, 8591 JP

Impact of Toshiba’s realization of gains on Kioxia shares Price (15 May 26):¥5,772

Price Target (Dec-26):¥4,800

On May 15, Toshiba (unlisted) announced FY2025 results. Full-year consolidated Japan Equity Research

net profit was ¥1,967.3 billion (¥1,468.1 billion in 4Q alone) on the sale of and

Insurance, Securities, Diversified

valuation gains on shares of Kioxia Holdings (covered by Mio Shikanai). Orix, Financials

which accounts for Toshiba as an equity-method affiliate through an LP AC Koki Sato

investment, announced that its 1Q FY2026 earnings are likely to be affected as a

(81-3) 6736-8609

result. Management has not disclosed the specific impact on earnings, but we koki.sato@jpmorgan.com

outline below our calculations and thoughts on the impact on shareholder returns. Yuka Azami

• Earnings impact: Orix reflects its equity in Toshiba’s income with a three- (81-3)yuka.azami@jpmorgan.com6736-8619

month lag. Orix invested ¥100 billion in TB Investment Limited Partnership, JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

formed by Japan Industrial Partners to take Toshiba private, and the total

amount raised through the LP investment to take Toshiba private was ¥520

billion. However, it is unclear what stake in Toshiba this LP investment

represents. Our forecasts for Orix assume roughly 14% of Toshiba’s

consolidated income is reflected in Orix’s equity-method income, and based on

this, we calculate the impact on Orix’s 1Q FY2026 earnings would be roughly

¥205.5 billion. Furthermore, we expect an indirect impact on Orix’s earnings

because Toshiba, which uses US GAAP and changed its accounting treatment