S&P Global Mobility Forecast Update 2Q26 Global Production Reduced Slightly (Driven by China), But NA Remains the Bright Spot; 2H26 and 2027 Outlooks Trimmed on Potential Demand Weakness

Research evidence excerpt

S&P Global Mobility Forecast Update 2Q26 Global Production Reduced Slightly (Driven by China), But NA Remains the Bright Spot; 2H26 and 2027 Outlooks Trimmed on Potential Demand Weakness

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

15 May 2026

S&P Global Mobility Forecast

Update

2Q26 Global Production Reduced Slightly (Driven by

China), But NA Remains the Bright Spot; 2H26 and

2027 Outlooks Trimmed on Potential Demand

Weakness

With the majority of auto suppliers (see our take from earlier this week) Autos & Auto Parts

ACmaintaining (or only slightly raising) FY26 guidance despite strong 1Q results, Rajat Gupta

today’s update suggests little risk to 2Q guidance/ consensus, though it (1-212) 622-6382

reinforces caution into 2H. rajat.gupta@jpmorgan.com

Yash Beswala

S&P's commentary reveals a bifurcated risk framework: NA production (1-212) 622-0028

stays resilient near-term, while the rest of the world (particularly Asia) faces yash.beswala@jpmchase.com

downside risk from what S&P believes is production being pulled forward Jash Patwa

ahead of potential feedstock shortages. In NA, production planning is expected (1-212) 622-5472

jash.patwa@jpmchase.com

to remain largely intact through mid-2026, underpinned by high-volume vehicles J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

(notably GM full-size pickups and the Toyota RAV4) to meet demand and

replenish lean inventories, with a more measured decline not beginning until late

3Q and extending through 2027–2028. However, globally (particularly Asia), S&P

highlights early evidence of production being pulled forward as OEMs guard

against potential feedstock and parts shortages from the Strait of Hormuz

disruption.

S&P Global Mobility's mid-May forecast update shows 2Q26 global

production tracking at -2.1% y/y (vs.