Japan Post Insurance (7181) 4Q results: In line with expectations overall, but could be viewed as disappointing

Research evidence excerpt

Japan Post Insurance (7181) 4Q results: In line with expectations overall, but could be viewed as disappointing

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

16 May 2026

Japan Post Insurance (7181) Neutral

7181.T, 7181 JP

4Q results: In line with expectations overall, but could Price (15 May 26):¥1,648

be viewed as disappointing Price Target (Dec-26):¥1,467

Neutral: Japan Post Insurance (JPI) reported FY2026 adjusted profit of ¥171.5 Japan Equity Research

billion, well above guidance of ¥162 billion and our estimate of ¥163.2 billion.

Insurance, Securities, Diversified

However, FY2026 guidance for adjusted profit to decline YoY to ¥155 billion is Financials

below our estimate of ¥167 billion. We are not surprised considering that JPI tends AC Koki Sato

to issue conservative initial guidance. The newly announced medium-term plan

(81-3) 6736-8609

(MTP) does not exceed our expectations, and could be viewed as insufficient to koki.sato@jpmorgan.com

justify the current share price level. Yuka Azami

• FY2026 guidance: Key factors behind the projected decline in adjusted profit (81-3)yuka.azami@jpmorgan.com6736-8619

(−¥16.5 billion) are a decrease in insurance-related gains/losses (−¥50 billion; JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

including −¥25 billion from a decrease in policies in force and −¥5 billion from

an increase in operating costs) and an increase in investment-related gains/

losses (+¥20 billion; including +¥10 billion from dividend income from

overseas credit funds and other sources and +¥10 billion from the impact of

hedging costs). Considering past trends for initial guidance, we believe the

outlook for investment-related gains/losses could be somewhat conservative.

JPI guides for 800,000 new policies in FY2026, recovering sharply from

428,000 in FY2025.