Nippon Shinyaku (4516) 4Q FY2025 results: Share price rose on solid FY2026 guidance, but outlook for deramiocel remains uncertain

Research evidence excerpt

Nippon Shinyaku (4516) 4Q FY2025 results: Share price rose on solid FY2026 guidance, but outlook for deramiocel remains uncertain

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

15 May 2026

Nippon Shinyaku (4516) Neutral

4516.T, 4516 JP

4Q FY2025 results: Share price rose on solid FY2026 Price (15 May 26):¥4,237

guidance, but outlook for deramiocel remains uncertain Price Target (Dec-26):¥4,000

Negative: 4Q sales were strong, and FY2025 results beat our estimates and the Japan Equity Research

Bloomberg consensus estimates. FY2026 operating profit guidance is also above

Biotechnology & Pharmaceuticals/

our estimate and the Bloomberg consensus estimate. While deramiocel (CAP- Medical Technologies & Services

1002) will contribute to sales, SG&A and other expenses will also rise, so its net AC Seiji Wakao, Ph.D.

contribution to operating profit will be essentially zero, and the gap with our

(81-3) 6736-8612

estimate is due to strong performance of domestic products. While Nippon seiji.wakao@jpmorgan.com

Shinyaku expects the outcome of the deliberation on the motion for a preliminary Yugo R. Kamimura, Ph.D.

injunction on deramiocel on June 3, the matter remains a major risk, and we are not (81-3) 6736-8635

optimistic. The share price rose after results were announced on solid FY2026 yugo.kamimura@jpmorgan.com

guidance, but with no change in the status of deramiocel, we expect a negative Naoko Saito

share price impact as we see the price gain correcting in the near term. (81-3) 6736-8693

naoko.saito@jpmorgan.com

• Deramiocel: Factoring into FY2026 guidance: Nippon Shinyaku guides for JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

sales of ¥11.4 billion, and it also expects to post amortization of a milestone

equal to gross profit from the sales, as well as SG&A expenses. It thus expect