Japan Post Holdings (6178) 4Q results, medium-term plan: Positive view of strengthened shareholder returns and structural reform in postal and logistics businesses

Research evidence excerpt

Japan Post Holdings (6178) 4Q results, medium-term plan: Positive view of strengthened shareholder returns and structural reform in postal and logistics businesses

JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd. Asia Pacific Equity Research

Ryota Himeno AC 15 May 2026 J P M O R G A N

(81-3) 6736-8639

ryota.himeno@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Japan Post Holdings (6178) (Neutral; Price Target: ¥2,100)

Investment Thesis

We do not expect Japan Post Holdings to sell more shares in Japan Post Bank or Japan Post

Insurance for the time being. We believe the earnings and share price trends of Japan Post

Bank, which accounts for the bulk of its profit, will continue to influence Japan Post

Holdings’ share price. Aside from that, we also focus on shareholder returns and Japan Post

Holdings’ earnings, but we expect no major changes in shareholder returns (we envisage

continuous stable dividends and share buybacks between ¥200 billion and ¥250 billion a

year). Regarding Japan Post Co.’s earnings, we will focus over the medium to long term on

Yu-Pack volume and average unit prices, and on the revision of the postal rate system. Postal

rates are set by law, and the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications has been

discussing the postal system since June 2024. Japan Post Holdings is seeking a pricing

framework that reflects predictable cost increases. Currently, postal rates are set by

ministerial ordinance, and transitioning to an approval-based system like that used for

public utilities could make it easier to pass on cost increases.

Valuation

Our ¥2,100 price target is based on our end-FY2026 BPS estimate of ¥3,025 and a

theoretical P/B of 0.69x (derived from our FY2026 ROE estimate of 4.6% divided by a cost

of equity of 6.6%).