Telco Chatter May 15: SFR deal delay, TEF Q1 conf, TI/INWIT settlement?

Research evidence excerpt

Telco Chatter May 15: SFR deal delay, TEF Q1 conf, TI/INWIT settlement?

rends, and H2 performance could be better than H1.

Management is “more comfortable” than peers on commercial trends. (2) Management are

seeing a “rational [Spanish] market in the high-value” segment. (3) The impact of

redundancy program in Spain was limited in Q1 as it started in the last month of the quarter.

The annual impact would be more concentrated towards H2 vs H1. (4) The peak drag from

the new wholesale agreements on the quarterly growth rate will be in Q2 and it is the

evolving “as expected”. Germany: (1) Focus on family plans could dilute mobile ARPU

going ahead. The Q2 ARPU performance was “slightly better than the competitors'

ARPU”. (2) Underlying service revenue ex wholesale drag were “stable” as other quarters

and management don’t see “a critical change in this evolution”, while underlying EBITDA

growth stood HSD and it continues to target return to total growth in 2027. (3) Management

expects better results in H2. AI Gigafactory: Telefonica is participating in Gigafactory bids

“all around Europe”. It is “leading the Spanish consortium”. It expects the outcome to come

by end-2026 after bids are submitted in June/July. It will be investing below the speculated

“few hundred millions” range by acquiring 10-15% stake in projects which will have two-

third capital financed by debt. Other: (1) Despite some confusion on the call, management

expect FY “other” EBITDA at €50m (ie the same as the Q1 level and hence no incremental

EBITDA contribution for the remainder of the year), (2) On new EU merger guidelines,

management feels these are “close to our vision”.

TI – Open to Inwit tower settlement

TIM CEO Pietro Labriola said the company is not litigating for the sake of it and would